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Prediction for CME (2016-07-28T22:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-07-28T22:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/11083/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption seen close to disk center in AIA 193/304 starting ~18:00 (with an activation/slow rise phase starting several hours earlier).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-08-02T11:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-08-02T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note: 
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/1000Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 360
Longitude (deg): 27W
Latitude (deg): 9N
Half-angular width (deg): 37 deg

Notes: With the initial CME speed close to or less than solar wind speeds there may not be a detectable shock, but an increase in density as it may arrive with the CIR.
Space weather advisor:
Lead Time: 77.63 hour(s)
Difference: 11.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2016-07-30T05:45Z
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